59 Idaho Controlled Hunts Went Undersubscribed in 2026

Somewhere in Idaho's 2026 controlled hunt results, a resident applicant put in for elk hunt 2015 — area 40-1 — and lost to 959 other people chasing 5 permits. In the same draw, on the same application, a resident who instead picked deer hunt 1079 in area 53-1 was one of 198 applicants for 463 permits and drew with room to spare. Same year, same system, same application. The difference wasn't luck. It was which box got checked.

Run every first-choice record in the 2026 controlled hunt dataset and a pattern falls out that most application advice skips past: odds are not evenly bad. 59 of the 548 first-choice hunts — split across deer, elk, pronghorn, and turkey — published 100% resident draw odds, because each one had at least as many permits as it had resident applicants. Meanwhile a much smaller, much louder group of hunts absorbed thousands of applicants for a handful of tags. This article walks through both ends, using only the numbers IDFG published for the 2026 draw, because the honest lesson here is that where you apply moves the needle harder than almost anything else in your control.

The 59 Hunts Nobody Filled

In IDFG's system, "100% resident odds" doesn't mean everyone who wanted the tag got a good outcome — it means the hunt had at least as many permits as resident applicants, so every resident who applied drew. Across the 2026 first-choice dataset, that happened 59 times:

• Deer — 22 hunts
• Elk — 24 hunts
• Pronghorn — 11 hunts
• Turkey — 2 hunts

No bear, moose, bighorn sheep, mountain goat, or California bighorn hunt cleared 100% resident odds in 2026 — which tracks with how much tighter those draws run overall (more on the species-level averages below). A few examples from the deer and elk lists, with the actual permit-to-applicant math:

• Deer hunt 1007, area 14: 154 permits, 78 resident applicants.
• Deer hunt 1012, area 20A: 152 permits, 60 resident applicants.
• Deer hunt 1017, area 26: 114 permits, 49 resident applicants.
• Deer hunt 1079, area 53-1: 463 permits, 198 resident applicants — and non-resident odds also hit 100% on this one, an unusually wide-open tag for anyone.

Some of these aren't one-offs, either — they cluster. Deer area 1-1X alone had three separate undersubscribed hunt records (1120, 1121, 1122) in 2026, and elk area 60-1 had three of its own (2096, 2097, 2161). Pull the full unit before assuming a soft hunt is a fluke.

The Other End: 960 Applicants, 5 Tags

The flip side is where the drama actually lives, and it's worth seeing next to the easy hunts rather than in isolation:

• Elk hunt 2015, area 40-1: 5 permits, 960 resident applicants, 0% resident odds.
• Moose hunt 3056, area 54: 3 permits, 425 applicants, 0% resident odds.
• Deer hunt 1049, area 60-1: 40 permits, 3,227 resident applicants, 1% resident odds.
• Elk hunt 2035, area 54: 20 permits, 2,476 resident applicants, 1% resident odds.

Deer hunt 1049 is the single biggest applicant pool for the smallest realistic shot in the entire dataset: 3,227 people applying for 40 tags in unit 60. These are historical 2026 results, not a forecast. IDFG says it does not use preference or bonus points, so compare current hunt rules and odds rather than planning around a points balance.

Same Unit, Same Species, Two Wildly Different Hunts

The clearest illustration that hunt number matters more than unit number sits inside unit 23, area 23-2. Two elk hunts share that exact area:

• Elk hunt 2065: 42 permits, 17 resident applicants — 100% resident odds.
• Elk hunt 2066: 25 permits, 99 resident applicants — 24% resident odds.

Same area, same species, same season the hunts were published in — and a resident's odds swing from a lock to worse than one-in-four depending purely on which hunt number they check on the application. If you're scouting by unit number alone and not cross-referencing the specific hunt number's permit count against its own applicant history, you can talk yourself into the wrong tag inside a unit you already correctly identified.

Resident vs. Non-Resident: Where the Gap Is Widest

A few hunts show different historical odds for resident and nonresident applicants in the same hunt. Turkey hunt 9013 (area 22-2) drew 85 resident applicants for 75 permits — 88% resident odds — while its single nonresident applicant came away with 0%. Deer hunt 1018 (area 27) shows another gap: 604 permits, 556 resident applicants (99% resident odds), and 357 nonresident applicants (14% nonresident odds). These results do not establish that one applicant group is processed first or explain the outcome of any individual application. IDFG describes controlled hunts as limited-tag random drawings; eligibility and applicable rules still matter. Review IDFG’s current controlled-hunt information before applying.

It runs the other way too. Elk hunt 2066 — the same tough area-23-2 hunt above — paired its 24% resident odds with 100% non-resident odds, because only a single non-resident applied against 25 permits. A hunt can be genuinely hard for residents and essentially open for a non-resident applying the same year, purely because so few non-residents know to look at it.

What the Averages Say About Each Species

Zoom out from individual hunts to species-wide averages across all first-choice 2026 records and the gap between what hunters assume and what the data shows gets bigger, not smaller:

• Turkey: ~52% average resident odds across 16 hunts — the best average odds of any species tracked, and the one most likely to be underrated by hunters who assume every controlled draw is a long shot.
• Elk: ~40% average resident odds across 182 hunts.
• Deer: ~38% average resident odds across 147 hunts.
• Pronghorn: ~32% average resident odds across 54 hunts.
• Moose: ~12% average resident odds across 94 hunts.
• Bear: ~14% average resident odds, but a small sample (6 controlled hunts).
• Bighorn sheep: ~5% average resident odds across 28 hunts.
• Mountain goat: ~5% average resident odds across 19 hunts.
• California bighorn: under 2% average, though only 2 hunts are tracked.

None of these averages mean any individual hunt in that species plays out that way — the deer average is being pulled up by hunts like 1079 (100% odds) and pulled down by hunts like 1049 (1% odds) sitting in the same dataset. But if your mental model of Idaho's draw is "everything controlled is a lottery," the turkey number alone should update it. In this dataset, bighorn sheep, mountain goat, and California bighorn average in the single digits; moose is listed at about 12%, so it does not belong in that single-digit group.

How to Actually Use This for 2027

None of the specific 2026 numbers above are a promise about 2027. IDFG resets permit counts, and sometimes hunt boundaries, every year based on herd data the agency collects independently of applicant demand — a hunt that was soft in 2026 can tighten if word gets out, and a brutal hunt can loosen if the herd objective changes. What doesn't reset is the method:

1. Check the specific hunt number, not just the unit. Unit 23's two elk hunts above prove a unit can hold both a lock and a long shot at once.
2. Look at the applicant count relative to permits, not the permit count alone. A 463-permit hunt with 198 applicants (deer 1079) is easier than a 40-permit hunt might sound scarier than it is — permits are only half the fraction.
3. Watch for repeat softness across a cluster of hunts in the same area — like the three undersubscribed hunts in deer area 1-1X, or the three in elk area 60-1 — since that pattern is more likely to reflect something structural about the area (access, terrain, herd composition) than a one-year fluke.
4. Compare resident and non-resident odds on the same hunt if you're weighing whether a spot is genuinely competitive or just has a lopsided applicant pool on one side.

The full breakdown lives in IDFG's own controlled hunt results, and this dataset is pulled directly from that source rather than estimated. For unit-level detail on herd health, seasons, and access as you build a 2027 list, Roam Idaho's hunting hub is a starting point — but IDFG remains the authority of record for permit counts, hunt definitions, and application deadlines. Pull the numbers yourself from the IDFG controlled hunt odds tool. Confirm every number here against IDFG's current published results before you build your application strategy around it.

Verify Before You Apply

Every hunt number, area, permit count, applicant count, and odds figure in this article comes directly from Roam Idaho's 2026 draw odds dataset, sourced from IDFG's published controlled hunt results. IDFG updates and corrects its own systems continuously, permit numbers and hunt structures change year to year, and this article describes a completed 2026 draw — not a forecast. Roam Idaho is not the authority of record for draw odds, permit allocations, or application deadlines. Confirm current-year numbers directly with IDFG before submitting a 2027 application.